Whats up with people selling power at exactly the production cost??
No profits...Why are players doing this?
Excuse me if I am displaying ignorance by asking this questions, but I noticed too many market offers selling power at 0,03 and some faxes demand power at 0,02...
Crazy Power Prices!!
Moderator: moderators
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Guest
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Guest
...sorry-
Guest
Still I have to agree. Selling for less than 0,04 is crazy I think. The same thing happened when realm 3 started on the German server. I always refused to sell for less than 0,04. But it seems to me that some players invested their money in the wrong product. Now they have to sell over 30 mio power for almost nothing.
Elwood
Elwood
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Guest
This dumb though...
I remember playing R1 1 year ago and evewryone was selling power at 0.25c
It was the best business...Everyone was making steel, oil, water and nearly everything produce was made using power. And people thought that 0.25c was cheap and they depended on others for power production.
But in R2, everyone has their own power plants...So, basically it is no industry at all.
I remember playing R1 1 year ago and evewryone was selling power at 0.25c
It was the best business...Everyone was making steel, oil, water and nearly everything produce was made using power. And people thought that 0.25c was cheap and they depended on others for power production.
But in R2, everyone has their own power plants...So, basically it is no industry at all.
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Guest
Well everyone will stay away from power sooner or later and price will rise. No worries.
Anyway, the main reason isnt because everyone has a power plant BUT...
1 53,282,604 POWERBANK Upmarket Businessman igm info
10,000,000 Power POWERBANK 0 0.03 300,000.00 buy
9,737,511 Power POWERBANK 0 0.03 292,125.33 buy
So the power prices will be for 0.03 for quite some time. : )
Another factor would be the start of the realm when everyone refused to build power plant. I remember selling power to cajny for .15 each. Mind you, it is a new server, .15 is a very high price for someone who is even smaller than a Small Businessman. Making a profit of around 1.5-1.8k per hour on a 20m2 green power plant. Seeing this extreme price. I think everyone rushed for power plant, either unable to afford power at this price or grabbing this chance.
Anyway, the main reason isnt because everyone has a power plant BUT...
1 53,282,604 POWERBANK Upmarket Businessman igm info
10,000,000 Power POWERBANK 0 0.03 300,000.00 buy
9,737,511 Power POWERBANK 0 0.03 292,125.33 buy
So the power prices will be for 0.03 for quite some time. : )
Another factor would be the start of the realm when everyone refused to build power plant. I remember selling power to cajny for .15 each. Mind you, it is a new server, .15 is a very high price for someone who is even smaller than a Small Businessman. Making a profit of around 1.5-1.8k per hour on a 20m2 green power plant. Seeing this extreme price. I think everyone rushed for power plant, either unable to afford power at this price or grabbing this chance.
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Guest
If people started selling power for more the price will go up. (Which will always happen until we hit the NPC price.)
I don't have power plants or wells on R2. However, I depend on both power and water for my business seeing I have only Mines. I didn't want to try and do it all myself as most people try to do in the begining. (Or as I did/kinda do on R1.)
I don't have power plants or wells on R2. However, I depend on both power and water for my business seeing I have only Mines. I didn't want to try and do it all myself as most people try to do in the begining. (Or as I did/kinda do on R1.)
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Guest
Well today's not really better for me but I guess I could take a break for a few.
First let me start with a riddle. You can skip it if you like, but I know some people enjoy these things and it's related to the subject:
Contrarian thinking has been described in several ways, but I like to approach it this way: assume that people are smart, so you have to be smarter. This tends to mean going against (contrary to) what is obviously the smart conclusion, hence the name.
Consider the opening days of Realm 2. Let's say you're the first person to create an account and enter. You pick your business, fast track it to life, and go to start producing. Then you realize you need what just about every product needs: power.
So you go to the market and look up power. What's the price of power at this point? .24, because only the NPC has it for sale. (Remember, you're the first one there.) Well .24 is a lot to pay for power, a whole lot, when your starting cash is so low and your outputs are q0. The conclusion is obvious.
The Smart Play
What's the smart thing to do when power costs .24? Build your own plant, of course. You'll never make a good profit buying that expensive power. So build a Power Plant to supply yourself, and what the heck maybe sell off some extra for nice profits.
That's the first person. What does the second one see? The exact same thing. It takes time to build and then produce. In fact everyone who logs in that first day will see the same thing: you have to pay .24. And most will have the exact same conclusion you did: the smart thing to do is make your own.
Not just the first day even. Day one nobody has produced anything yet. Day two power is being made, but the makers need to use it for themselves immediately. Day three's supply gets kept in the warehouse just in case. Day 4 it finally goes to the market. But the best price is .24 for the NPC, so people list at .23, .22.
During all 4 of those days, new players who come in all make the same decision. In fact some probably restart their account to focus on power. "I'll be 'The Power Guy' they think, and make a killing." Unfortuantely there are like 40-50 "Power Guys" all unaware of each other trying to do the same thing.
Now jump forward to the second week. Power plants are one of the most common buildings in the game. Everyone has more than they need, and is hoping to sell the rest. But the market is thoroughly overcrowded. A trail is left all the way from .24 down to .02. Power producers are desparately undercutting each other for two reasons: one, to try to sell what they have at any price possible. And two, to try to send the message that no one should build power plants.
But of course it's been done. Most of the companies have already been started. Each of the power sellers has to hope the other sellers give up on the time they spent and reset away from power. (While they are of course thinking the same thing.) And the market is flooded with .03 power.
The Contrarian Play
The smartest play would be to go against the obvious conclusion. A contrarian goes to the market, sees power at .24, and realizes that everyone and their grandmother is going to start building plants. So they don't build one. Instead, they build things that use power, and suck up the .24 for a few days knowing it will drop.
Now instead of having a building that can barely break even, they own factories that operate extra cheap because of everyone else's power supply. They did that by avoiding the "smart" play, assuming that other people would be smart, and acting to anticipate that.
Sometimes it's fun too. Just in casual conversation, I mentioned to some friends that October 9 would be the day the (US) stock markets would hit a top and start falling. That was at the end of August. I would have called victory if I was close to right within a month. But to the day, both the S&P 500 and the Dow hit thier peak that day and have been lower ever since.
What was magic about the 9th? Rupert Murdoch launched a new business channel. You only spend billions of dollars on something like that if you have stacks of studies showing that the public wants to watch. People only watch business news when they own stocks and are excited about them. Obviously excitement was very high and launching a new channel was the smart move.
Then the contrarian steps up. If the public already owns stocks, where are new buyers going to come from? Every day the stock market is populated by 3 types of people: People who actively want to buy, people who actively want to sell, and people who can be talked into playing.
If the same number of buyers and sellers show up, they will meet at the market price and exchange shares, and the price stays fixed. If more buyers show up, they need to talk people into selling - and and that means paying a little more. The price goes up. (The reverse also works.) So if day after day new buyers show up, a stock price will keep moving up.
But eventually new buyers stop showing up. The people who wanted to own already own. They're in. Maybe they're even looking to sell. That's the top, the point when the buyers stop running the game and the sellers start. And it happens when everyone is the most excited, when the last person has finally decided that getting on board is the smart thing to do.
So of course if a major corporation figures people are excited about business news, they're probably right. But if everyone is already excited, no one is left to get on board. That's why a contrarian would see this and call the top.
Now of course it's harder to do in the real world since there are many many factors to consider. But in Kapilands it's a lot more finite. And you can find a lot of opportunities by figuring out the opposite move, and then getting on the other side.
Riddle answer:
First let me start with a riddle. You can skip it if you like, but I know some people enjoy these things and it's related to the subject:
- Once upon a time there lived a king who wished to find the wisest man in the realm to be his assistant. He summons the 3 known wisest men to his court (named Moe, Larry, and of course, Marmaduke) and he administers the following test.
He sits them in a circle, facing each other and he says "I'm going to put either a red hat or a white hat on each of your heads." He proceeds to place a red hat on each of their heads. Obviously they can see each other... but there are no mirrors in the room so they can't see what's on their heads. He says "If you can see a red hat, raise your hand." They all raise their hands. Then he says "If you can tell what color hat you have on, stand up."
Time goes on, one guy looks at another guy, he looks at the other guy. The other guy looks at him. Finally Marmaduke stands up. The question is how did he know he was wearing a red hat?
Contrarian thinking has been described in several ways, but I like to approach it this way: assume that people are smart, so you have to be smarter. This tends to mean going against (contrary to) what is obviously the smart conclusion, hence the name.
Consider the opening days of Realm 2. Let's say you're the first person to create an account and enter. You pick your business, fast track it to life, and go to start producing. Then you realize you need what just about every product needs: power.
So you go to the market and look up power. What's the price of power at this point? .24, because only the NPC has it for sale. (Remember, you're the first one there.) Well .24 is a lot to pay for power, a whole lot, when your starting cash is so low and your outputs are q0. The conclusion is obvious.
The Smart Play
What's the smart thing to do when power costs .24? Build your own plant, of course. You'll never make a good profit buying that expensive power. So build a Power Plant to supply yourself, and what the heck maybe sell off some extra for nice profits.
That's the first person. What does the second one see? The exact same thing. It takes time to build and then produce. In fact everyone who logs in that first day will see the same thing: you have to pay .24. And most will have the exact same conclusion you did: the smart thing to do is make your own.
Not just the first day even. Day one nobody has produced anything yet. Day two power is being made, but the makers need to use it for themselves immediately. Day three's supply gets kept in the warehouse just in case. Day 4 it finally goes to the market. But the best price is .24 for the NPC, so people list at .23, .22.
During all 4 of those days, new players who come in all make the same decision. In fact some probably restart their account to focus on power. "I'll be 'The Power Guy' they think, and make a killing." Unfortuantely there are like 40-50 "Power Guys" all unaware of each other trying to do the same thing.
Now jump forward to the second week. Power plants are one of the most common buildings in the game. Everyone has more than they need, and is hoping to sell the rest. But the market is thoroughly overcrowded. A trail is left all the way from .24 down to .02. Power producers are desparately undercutting each other for two reasons: one, to try to sell what they have at any price possible. And two, to try to send the message that no one should build power plants.
But of course it's been done. Most of the companies have already been started. Each of the power sellers has to hope the other sellers give up on the time they spent and reset away from power. (While they are of course thinking the same thing.) And the market is flooded with .03 power.
The Contrarian Play
The smartest play would be to go against the obvious conclusion. A contrarian goes to the market, sees power at .24, and realizes that everyone and their grandmother is going to start building plants. So they don't build one. Instead, they build things that use power, and suck up the .24 for a few days knowing it will drop.
Now instead of having a building that can barely break even, they own factories that operate extra cheap because of everyone else's power supply. They did that by avoiding the "smart" play, assuming that other people would be smart, and acting to anticipate that.
Sometimes it's fun too. Just in casual conversation, I mentioned to some friends that October 9 would be the day the (US) stock markets would hit a top and start falling. That was at the end of August. I would have called victory if I was close to right within a month. But to the day, both the S&P 500 and the Dow hit thier peak that day and have been lower ever since.
What was magic about the 9th? Rupert Murdoch launched a new business channel. You only spend billions of dollars on something like that if you have stacks of studies showing that the public wants to watch. People only watch business news when they own stocks and are excited about them. Obviously excitement was very high and launching a new channel was the smart move.
Then the contrarian steps up. If the public already owns stocks, where are new buyers going to come from? Every day the stock market is populated by 3 types of people: People who actively want to buy, people who actively want to sell, and people who can be talked into playing.
If the same number of buyers and sellers show up, they will meet at the market price and exchange shares, and the price stays fixed. If more buyers show up, they need to talk people into selling - and and that means paying a little more. The price goes up. (The reverse also works.) So if day after day new buyers show up, a stock price will keep moving up.
But eventually new buyers stop showing up. The people who wanted to own already own. They're in. Maybe they're even looking to sell. That's the top, the point when the buyers stop running the game and the sellers start. And it happens when everyone is the most excited, when the last person has finally decided that getting on board is the smart thing to do.
So of course if a major corporation figures people are excited about business news, they're probably right. But if everyone is already excited, no one is left to get on board. That's why a contrarian would see this and call the top.
Now of course it's harder to do in the real world since there are many many factors to consider. But in Kapilands it's a lot more finite. And you can find a lot of opportunities by figuring out the opposite move, and then getting on the other side.
Riddle answer:
- There's not quite enough information if you look at it objectively. Just because Marmaduke sees two red hats (and Moe and Larry see at least one) that doesn't tell him very much. He could still have white or red and the other things would still be equally true.
However, suppose Marmaduke did have a white hat. Let's be Moe. We see at least one red hat so we raise our hand. Then Larry also raises his hand. Well what red hat did Larry see? If Marmaduke's hat is white, then Larry could only have seen red on our (Moe's) head. Therefore we (Moe) would have solved the puzzle.
But Moe didn't solve the problem. Moe's smart. We know he's one of the wisest men around, and that he had several minutes to think about it. If Marmaduke's hat had been white, Moe would have his answer based just on the logic in the previous paragraph. (Or Larry would, they're both in the same boat.)
So Marmaduke knew his hat was Red because that's the only way Moe wouldn't have been able to answer. And by giving Moe credit for being smart, he found his way to the right answer.
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Guest
I have no words, knolls...
I now understand why you are the moderator...AMAZING!
Your post helped me a lot...I learnt it was best to think 10 moves ahead of your current position and think of long term profits. Also think about what the other player could do. Never think about your next move and what your short-term profits could be.
Its a lot like chess.
Thanks a lot. I think that should be in the guide to all guides - Contrarian and Smart thinking
I now understand why you are the moderator...AMAZING!
Your post helped me a lot...I learnt it was best to think 10 moves ahead of your current position and think of long term profits. Also think about what the other player could do. Never think about your next move and what your short-term profits could be.
Its a lot like chess.
Thanks a lot. I think that should be in the guide to all guides - Contrarian and Smart thinking
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Guest
yeah nice post knoll, i just wish more ppl would look ahead of short term profits, germany average gas price is down to $18 already!
some ppl can only see 1-2 steps in front of them for short term profit, but thats not the way of kapilands! its not a short term game in any way
( go go go 24hr gas cycles ppl it will help us all! )
some ppl can only see 1-2 steps in front of them for short term profit, but thats not the way of kapilands! its not a short term game in any way
( go go go 24hr gas cycles ppl it will help us all! )